Josh Appelbaum examines where smart money is leaning for Raiders-Buccaneers, Seahawks-Cardinals and Bears-49ers.
Today we have a loaded NFL Week 14 slate on tap with 11-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our
VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
The Raiders (2-10) have lost eight straight games and just came up short against the Chiefs 19-17 but easily covered as 13.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers (6-6) have won two straight and just outlasted the Panthers 26-23 in overtime but failed to cover as 6.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public sees an easy blowout win and cover for the Bucs. However, despite receiving 74% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Tampa Bay fall from -7.5 to -6.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Raiders plus the points, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular side. At Circa Sports, the Raiders are taking in 59% of spread bets but a hefty 85% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split. Big dogs getting 6.5-points or more are 33-21 ATS (61%) with a 17% ROI this season. The Raiders enjoy a rest advantage, as they last played on November 29th while the Bucs last played on December 1st. Las Vegas also has buy-low value as a “bad” ATS team (5-7) against a sell-high “good” ATS team. Aidan O’Connell is 9-3 ATS (75%) in his career, including 5-1 ATS (83%) on the road. Baker Mayfield is just 17-28 ATS (38%) as a favorite. Pros have hit the over as well, steaming the total up from 44.5 to 47. The over is receiving 64% of bets but 89% of dollars at DraftKings, a sharp Pro and Joe bet split. Both teams are 8-4 to the over this season, tied for 3rd best in the NFL.
The Seahawks (7-5) have won three in a row and just took down the Jets 26-21, winning outright as 1.5-point road dogs. On the flip side, the Cardinals (6-6) have dropped two straight and just fell to the Vikings 23-22 but covered as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Arizona listed as low as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public sees this as a coin-flip game and are leaning toward taking the points with the Seahawks, who have the superior record and have played better as of late. However, despite 52% of spread bets at DraftKings taking Seattle we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Arizona -1.5 to -2.5. Several shops are even creeping up to Arizona -3. The Cardinals are only receiving 48% of spread bets but 65% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split indicating “fade the trendy dog” smart money in their favor. Those looking to follow the sharp move but wary of laying points around a key number could also target Arizona on the moneyline at -145. The Cardinals are only getting 52% of moneyline bets but 62% of moneyline dollars, evidence of wiseguy action banking on Arizona to win straight up. Arizona has buy-low value as a team on a losing streak against a sell-high team on a winning streak. This is also a revenge spot for the Cardinals, who fell to the Seahawks 16-6 in Seattle two weeks ago. Pros are expecting a lower scoring game, as the total has tumbled from 46 to 44.5. The under is only taking in 38% of bets but a whopping 67% of dollars at DraftKings, a massive sharp money under split. When the total falls at least a point in a divisional matchup the under is 80-59 (58%) with a 10% ROI since 2022.
The Bears (4-8) have lost six straight and just fell to the Lions 23-20 but managed to cover as 9.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the 49ers (5-7) have lost three in a row and just got crushed by the Bills 35-10, failing to cover as 6.5-point road dogs. The early opening line for this game was San Francisco as high as a 6-point home favorite. Since that time, we’ve seen one-sided lined movement in favor of the Bears, as Chicago has moved from +6 down to +3. Over the past 24-hours in particular we’ve seen Chicago fall from +3.5 to +3, with the evaporation of the hook a key indicator that pros are still taking Chicago despite the reduced price. At DraftKings, the Bears are receiving 55% of spread bets and 69% of spread dollars. At Circa, Chicago is taking in 69% of spread bets and 81% of spread dollars. Both books are displaying sharp “low bets, higher dollars” splits in favor of the road dog Bears. Chicago has correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (43.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover. The Bears also enjoy a rest advantage, having last played on November 28th while the 49ers last played on December 1st. San Francisco has a lengthy injury report and will be without DE Nick Bosa, RBs Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason along with OT Trent Williams. Chicago will also look to get a motivational bump, as this is the first game under interim coach Thomas Brown after the Bears just fired Matt Eberflus last week. Ron Torbert, the lead ref, is 58% ATS to the road team historically.
